European FTTP adoption rates and market value track upward

Even though the rate of adoption of fibre broadband across Europe ranges from as low as one in six to almost universal, penetration and coverage is on the rise, leading to higher potential fibre-to-the-premises (FTTP) subscription revenues that can be generated in a country – the so-called revenue headroom – according to research from Point Topic.

The August 2024 update of its FTTP adoption rates and market value in Europe report looked at fibre adoption rates across 30 European countries and how they changed between 2013 and 2023.

The topline finding was that as of mid-2023, the average fibre adoption rate stood at 57.2%, up from the 54.4% recorded in mid-2022, ranging from 16.3% in Austria and Greece to 94.9% in Iceland. Between 2022 and 2023, the study saw the largest positive change in the FTTP adoption rate in Estonia, where it rose by 12.2% from 67.7% to 79.9%. At the other end of the spectrum, fibre adoption rate fell by 9.2% from 83.3% to 74% in Finland.

Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, Point Topic recorded the highest growth in FTTP subscribers in Greece, up by 101%, where broadband technology was introduced relatively recently, with growth coming from a very low base. In the same period, the country saw a 35.1% increase in FTTP homes passed to more than 1.6 million. Given the small subscriber base, the country was at the bottom of the fibre adoption table, along with Austria.

Belgium and Austria also recorded high growth in FTTP subscribers, with their numbers almost doubling, by 78.2% in Belgium and 68.8% in Austria. Both countries were slow to introduce full-fibre, but the pace of rollout has been picking up, especially in Belgium where homes passed were up by 39.8%, resulting in a 29.7% fibre adoption rate.

In Austria, FTTP homes passed went up by only 12.9%. However, given that FTTP subscribers grew at a high rate but from a small base, its fibre adoption rate remained among the lowest in Europe, at 16.3%. Most Austrian households are still subscribing to a digital subscriber line (VDSL or ADSL) or cable/DOCSIS-based broadband.

Assessing the trends revealed by the data, Point Topic said the study showed fibre adoption rates at the higher end of the scale where FTTP deployment started earlier compared with other markets, and that primarily these are the countries that were pioneers in fibre deployment and had encouraged investment in the sector and competition. It called out Scandinavia, France, Portugal and Spain in this regard.

Countries where the incumbent operators adopted full-fibre as their preferred technology – the report cited the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia – were also found to have done well in terms of FTTP adoption by consumers.

However, the study also showed that incumbents in Austria, Greece, Germany, Belgium, UK and Italy, among others, had favoured VDSL for a significant period of time before investing in full-fibre. In these countries, FTTP availability was found to be provided mainly by smaller operators and had only started picking up in the past few years.

Partly as a result of this, said the analyst, fibre adoption rates in these markets were still at the lower end of the spectrum. Switzerland and Czech Republic were bucking the trend, however, where FTTP coverage is at the lower end of the spectrum but take-up rates are higher than in the above-mentioned countries.

Point Topic also noted that it was not uncommon to see negative growth in fibre adoption where fibre networks are built faster than new customers are signed up, especially in mature broadband markets where most households are either already on fibre or have other broadband services meeting their needs.

Germany, for example, witnessed a drop in fibre adoption rate (6.7%) where Deutsche Telekom and other operators were pushing ahead with FTTP deployments but where VDSL and cable networks have been around for a long time and many customers choose to stay on these platforms.