Autonomous trucking industry in fast lane

The autonomous truck sector is projected to have an annual growth rate of 25% over the next 20 years, gaining momentum from companies in Asia, Europe and the US entering the commercial testing phase, according to research from analyst IDTechEx.

The report, Autonomous trucks 2024-2044: Technologies, trends, forecasts, looked to provide detailed insights into the market share and growth prospects of key regions, including China and the US. It includes assessments of technical maturity, value chain positioning, business models, and practical calculations to determine the total cost of ownership for different levels of autonomous systems - graded from lowest to highest autonomy as L0, L2, L3, L4 - across various markets, and also to identify routes to commercial L4 deliveries. The report also highlights the pain points of commercialising autonomous trucks, including the reasons why the industry is choosing autonomy.

By 2044, the report predicted, the global trucking fleet will be supported by an additional half a million L4 autonomous drivers, while the remaining drivers will either act as supervisors or work in less-developed regions.

The study added that trucks have long been regarded as having great potential in commercialising autonomous driving systems and that compared with robotaxis and other mobility-service-oriented autonomous platforms, companies within the industry do not need to focus as much on user experience or integration within society.

IDTechEx said the purpose of autonomous driving systems in trucks is to address several critical issues, with driver management the most prominent. It noted unstable social conditions and Covid-19 have deterred many from becoming truck drivers - young people are reluctant to spend their lives on the road when homeworking has become a viable way to build a career. Fewer drivers means carriers are forced to increase wages to attract new and suitable drivers, thus raising operating costs.

Safety is another crucial consideration. The analyst firm said using autonomous long-haul trucks has the potential to reduce the number of accidents, as autonomous driving systems do not get distracted and can facilitate more efficient and effective communication with other vehicles or devices.

In its analysis, IDTechEx noted that in 2024, autonomous truck companies are actively conducting commercial testing in the hope of addressing the paint points above. After studying more than 10 of the largest autonomous truck companies, the analyst outlined two main commercialisation paths. These, it said, are influenced by government regulations on autonomous vehicle testing in various countries, with some regions providing detailed policy support specifically for autonomous trucks.

IDTechEx said that at the current stage, L4 autonomous trucks require more efficient route planning to reduce uncertainties along the way, thus improving the quality of the operational design domains (ODDs). It added that L4 hub-to-hub transport can consolidate cargo from multiple clients and maximise the use of the same ODD for L4 level transportation and that this approach can save vehicle energy and enhance vehicle utilisation.

After tracking global and regional leaders in autonomous truck sales, IDTechEx found increasing disparities among them with market environments in each of the three major regions – Europe, the US and China – having fostered their own leading companies.