Trying to predict the future isn’t easy. If you’d told someone 20 years ago, for example, that Donald Trump would be president of the United States (twice) they’d call your bluff. And yet, here we are.
Perhaps it’s safer to concentrate on the nearer future by asking people in the industry to predict what might happen in the first quarter of 2025. Do they look at it with a glass half-full or a glass half-empty view? Or is there no glass at all?
Positives and negatives
According to Innes Muir, regional manager of MSSPs for UK&I, Benelux and RoW at Logpoint: “There’s a lot of cause to be optimistic, especially in the cyber security space.” With central government funding needing to be spent before the new financial year, there will be a lot of opportunity for closure in the first quarter for the channel, he adds.
Muir claims there’s a fair wind blowing after a couple of years in the doldrums: “We’ve got a core of key partners who are delivering new net opportunities and deal registrations. Our partner engagement and net new partner engagement is up and a cause for optimism.”
Is there anything that could have a negative effect? “If we consider central government funding for public sector organisations, there isn’t an infinite amount of money available, so partners and vendors need to have that in mind and shorten their time to market to get their share of the funding,” Muir warns. “Anybody who’s waiting for the phone to ring is going to be left behind, so the channel has to be very proactive in its approach – not just at the vendor level, but at the partner level as well.”
Stephen Green, senior sales director for EMEA at Netwrix, expects cyber security channel businesses and their vendor partners to continue prioritising agility and adaptability in an increasingly commoditised market. He believes there are grounds for optimism and pessimism for 2025.
On the plus side, growing awareness of cyber security threats and stricter regulations, such as NIS2 and UK-localised versions of GDPR-type regulations, are driving strong demand for advanced security solutions, including zero-trust architectures, AI-driven threat detection and cloud-based security frameworks.
On the pessimistic side, macroeconomic pressures, including inflation and geopolitical conflicts, could constrain IT budgets, causing some organisations to delay new security investments, says Green. This was a familiar trend for much of 2024. Many organisations were hesitant and switched to a wait-and-see approach, with this trend particularly prevalent among SMEs.
The changing security landscape
Security figures highly as a priority in 2025, as does AI. David Primor, CEO at Cynomi, says that the company is entering 2025 with optimism, but also with a strong sense of urgency, adding: “The cyber security landscape continues to evolve at an accelerated pace, so the first quarter is set to be both dynamic and demanding.”
Primor expects many MSPs to include strategic cyber security services and virtual chief information security officer (vCISO) services as a new offering, but he warns that talent shortages in cyber security could be an issue. “While demand is high, the talent pool is limited,” he says, “which could strain channel partners as they try to scale their services. However, technology that embraces AI and automation can help to overcome this gap.”
Dean Watson, lead solution expert of secure networking at Infinigate UK&I, predicts that AI adoption will surge in 2025, with threat actors utilising AI-powered malware, intelligence gathering, and automation tools allowing cyber criminals to deploy more effective and precise cyber attacks. On the side of defence, AI-powered analytics, anomaly detection and correlation engines will empower security operations centres (SOCs) with the ability to mount an efficient defence of their organisations from the expected cyber attack surge.
He warns that the adoption of AI-powered PCs will improve productivity, but will also create new attack vectors for threat actors, with data exposure concerns to be considered. Care should also be taken to ensure that security implications are carefully considered before activating the AI features of new systems.
If a vendor claims AI is transforming their product and asks for more money to flip the switch, it’s time to raise an eyebrow
Alex Glass, Expel
Rob O’Connor, technology lead and CISO for EMEA at Insight, makes a similar point. Security is always a main area of concern for business, but there will be a new area of interest in 2025, dealing with the impact that AI will have on security, he says, adding: “The advent of AI will present a new set of challenges to CISOs. Unsophisticated hackers will now have far more sophisticated weapons at their disposal.”
Cyber criminals will be able to use AI to circumvent existing cyber defences and create deepfake voice and video calls to trick employees into giving away sensitive information. While it’s true that organisations will also be able to use AI to construct defences, “the battle is about to get more intense – particularly if the rumours about state-sponsored cyber attacks prove to be true”, says O’Connor.
Alex Glass, head of global channel and alliances at Expel, says that partners will need to understand what risk generative AI (GenAI) poses within their customers and help them to define policies to best mitigate it. “One of the major challenges they will face will be having to fight through all the ‘vendor noise’related to leveraging AI as a marketing buzzword, similar to the ‘zero-trust’ phrase seven-to-eight years ago,” he says.
“In reality, businesses shouldn’t have to shell out more cash to security vendors just because they slapped an AI label on their solutions. AI should make security smarter and quicker, but that’s a functionality upgrade, not a revolution. If a vendor claims AI is transforming their product and asks for more money to flip the switch, it’s time to raise an eyebrow.”
Market growth and slowdown
Geoff Greenlaw, vice-president of EMEA & LATAM channel sales at Pure Storage, observes that procurement cycles are lengthening amid cautious spending and inefficient processes within businesses.
“Technology decisions are being made in the same time frame as before, but execution is slowing down in the wake of prolonged procurement decisions,” he says. “In 2025, we will see a focus from the channel on re-architecting processes to improve the efficiency of deals. This includes a much tighter qualification of opportunities, and a stronger understanding of key stakeholders, who are the people signing the paper.”
He adds that the partners who succeed in 2025 will be those who can bring a complete solution to a customer to solve for a business outcome: “This might mean bringing together technologies from multiple vendors, therefore the importance of working with alliances and partnerships cannot be overstated. Lastly, it will be critical for these partners to present a comprehensive and clear ROI [return on investment] for said business outcome.”
Johnny Carpenter, vice-president channel and alliances EMEA at 11:11 Systems, predicts a strong beginning and greater clarity in the market landscape in 2025, which will lead to an increase in investments, and further stability and growth: “We also expect to observe some shifts in business models among vendors as they adjust their offerings to meet the evolving needs of the market.”
In 2025, we will see a focus from the channel on re-architecting processes to improve the efficiency of deals
Geoff Greenlaw, Pure Storage
Companies will need to balance cost reduction with the need to uphold their security, environmental responsibilities, governance and compliance. “This is no mean feat, which is why we believe customers will seek more and more external expert service providers to help them navigate the complex landscape,” adds Carpenter.
Pete Wilson, director of channel sales EMEA at Illumio, predicts that more partners will transition to a consultancy and services-led approach, including offering managed services as more customers choose to buy solutions through online marketplaces. “For resellers, this will present a new challenge. They will have to adapt quickly to compete among already well-established MSPs and ensure they continue to improve their margins and customer loyalty,” he says.
Wilson expects vendors to refine their channel partnerships with a move to quality over quantity when it comes to partnerships. “This already started to happen in 2024, but in 2025 it will be about ensuring those that remain are well-equipped to deliver both cutting-edge technology and play a consulting role,” he says.
Martin Hester, head of EMEA and LATAM partner and alliances at Black Duck, says there is reason to believe it will maintain its momentum into the first quarter, but accepts a range of factors could have a negative effect: “There is a lot going on in the world and these are unpredictable times. The snap elections in Germany, the war in Ukraine, the new administration in the US, escalating tensions with China and the increasing potential of trade wars could all impact business.
“Even with these considerations at hand, we remain positive. There is a huge amount of upside for our business and all analyst predictions say there is going to be significant market growth associated with application security tools for several years.”
Will AI provide a boost?
Paul Holden, vice-president EMEA sales at CallTower, says that the first quarter is always an important time in the channel: “Depending on financial reporting timings, a business is either going to be gearing up for a strong take-off for the coming year or bringing sales into land in the final quarter. That means looking at new developments coming on stream to build out the funnel or looking for value-added services to close out sales already in the funnel.”
Holden states that those at the start of their financial year will be focused on monetising new tech such as AI. “And those on the final straight will be looking at offering additional value to fix existing challenges and create business outcomes that save money or make money,” he adds.
Paul Flannery, vice-president of international channel sales at Epicor, is among those who believe AI represents a huge opportunity in 2025, arguing that partners able to get the most out of the technology and its ability to draw actionable insights from huge volumes of data will immediately be ahead of the competition. “Being able to translate the use of technology into tangible benefits for customers is key,” he says.
He believes that a significant challenge in 2025 is the financial strain affecting many industries, “particularly those we serve through our channel partners – many sectors will be grappling with tight margins and talent retention issues”.
Flannery says that it is crucial that channel-driven organisations support their partners in addressing these challenges. “The key is to help equip channel partners with solutions that directly tackle their customers’pain points,” he adds. “We want to empower them to overcome these obstacles, maintain a competitive edge in the market, and be in a position to deliver measurable business outcomes for their customers.”
Danny Hemminga, vice-president of partner sales, EMEA, at Tanium, foresees a mix of optimism and caution for the channel: “While the adoption of AI and automation offers exciting opportunities, challenges like rising cyber threats and economic uncertainties could dampen the mood.” He urges the channel to support businesses in remaining vigilant against bad actors exploiting evolving technologies, particularly in critical sectors like healthcare and national infrastructure.
According to Alan Stewart-Brown, vice-president EMEA at Opengear, all the indicators suggest a slow start to the year. “The UK’s economic landscape presents challenges with slow growth and cautious business sentiment,” he says. “Vendors are noticing extended sales cycles and delayed investments, leading some to offer unprecedented discounts and extended payment terms to close deals before the end of 2024. While this may provide a short-term boost, it could risk creating a sales vacuum in the first quarter of 2025.”
As these shifts unfold, the channel will not just adapt, but redefine itself, creating an era where technology becomes a collaborative force
David Keogh, Dropbox
He highlights sustainability as a business imperative, driven by regulations and consumer demand, adding: “Vendors offering solutions that extend product lifecycles and reduce environmental impact will find eager markets, especially in eco-conscious regions like the Nordics.”
Vincent Benoît-Marquié, senior principal of strategy and transformation at Conga, doesn’t have a clear view of how the year will begin, but observes that given the current economic environment, every channel business is being extremely cautious. “Outside of the UK, other markets feel much the same, and even the big ‘house names’ – or larger companies – are struggling, so growth or expansion will undoubtedly slow,” he says.
While there has been a big focus on AI, he wonders if the industry may have reached the limit of what it can do with the current state of technology. “Unless there are ground-breaking developments in 2025 that require an education piece of the channel, the situation is unlikely to change,” he adds.
Gerard Brophy, CRO at Climb Channel Solutions, says that for all the talk around AI, the challenge is about how to monetise it. Like others, he draws attention to the security implications. “When you look at AI as a product, the security element is huge. So, for us, we are constantly looking at new vendors and our existing vendors to see where they sit in the AI space. With the work we have done in the past 12 months on AI, Climb’s first quarter should be very strong.”
David Keogh, senior director of sales and channel for EMEA at Dropbox, says there will be a significant transformation in the channel, driven by the rapid evolution of AI and the growing adoption of flexible and multicloud environments. AI will act as an enabler, helping partners to anticipate customer needs, streamline operations, and deliver personalised, intelligent solutions at scale.
“At the same time, businesses will demand seamless integration across increasingly complex ecosystems, pushing the channel to prioritise not just interoperability and agility, but also robust security measures,” he adds.
Keogh predicts that the lines between traditional channel roles will blur in 2025. “Vendors, distributors and partners alike must embrace new business models and evolve from transactional relationships to value-driven ecosystems,” he says. “As these shifts unfold, the channel will not just adapt, but redefine itself, creating an era where technology becomes a collaborative force that drives growth, resilience, and innovation across the board, with AI as the enabler.”
Michelle Hodges, senior vice-president of global channels and alliances at Ivanti, believes that 2025 will elevate partner programmes beyond their traditional role as sales enablers to become strategic growth engines.
“[Core to this shift is] the continuous feedback loop between vendors and their partners,” she says. “Engaging in active listening with partners isn’t just a relational skill, it’s a strategic imperative that demands organisational commitment. I foresee substantial investments in partner communications, with vendors participating in programmes like roundtable discussions and advisory boards to foster deeper and more meaningful communication.”
