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Channel explainer: The attraction of AI-capable PCs

Everyone is talking about AI, but what does it look like when it comes to pitching laptops and desktop replacements?

The fourth quarter (Q4) is traditionally the moment a wave of hardware options hit the market, timed to stir consumer interest with the holidays on the horizon.

The range of laptops also have a commercial dimension tempting enterprise users with improved features. Chief among them will be the introduction of more artificial intelligence (AI). But what exactly are AI-capable PCs and how much of a revenue spur will they be for the channel in Q4 and going into 2025?

What is an AI-capable PC?

The definition of an AI-capable PC is difficult to state because it varies from PC vendors to chip vendors, with the companies all having their individual criteria. Generally, it is a type of PC containing specialised hardware including a GPU and a NPU (neural processing unit) components, which have specific AI-acceleration capabilities.

As a result of their design, AI-capable PCs provide vastly superior AI performance in comparison to normal PCs and are more efficient at handling complex tasks. The crucial element for the AI acceleration is derived from the NPU architecture that simulates a human brain’s neural network, executing instructions suited for AI quickly.

What are the benefits of an AI-capable PC?

The next natural question is about the advantages of using an AI-capable PC over a standard machine. Why should your company purchase these computers instead of looking at much cheaper options? There are multiple different reasons.

Although there are numerous cloud-based AI solutions, the advantage of AI-capable PCs are they offer enhanced security and privacy as they store data locally. The removal of mundane jobs, for instance those which entail extensive datasets can boost productivity if your workers focus their attention in more important tasks.

What is available to the channel?

According to Canalys, AI-capable PCs already account for 14% of the market – a number that is only set to rise next year. Microsoft is driving Copilot, which is introducing many customers to the world of AI, but more use cases should emerge next year.

All the major hardware vendors have products in this field. Lenovo is one good example, with the firm recently launching a number of products. Speaking at the recent Canalys Channel Forum, the vendor indicated that not only is it anticipating shipments will increase, but that average sale prices will rise because of the improved specifications of AI machines.

Luca Rossi, president of IDG and executive vice-president of the Lenovo Group, said that the future was looking more positive, and the migration to Windows 11 was a factor that would support hardware manufacturers. “Windows 10, end of life in October ’25...will definitely drive PC substitution, change and replacement,” he said.

This, along with to AI and the number of legacy PCs users were sitting on because of the forced purchases made during the pandemic, are all working in the industry’s favour.

“In 2025, the market will grow between five and 10% for PC, and I see a similar value in 2026. Now, this is the PC world, but think about AI in tablets, in smartphones, in IoT [internet of things] devices, in talking stations,” said Rossi. “I think the revenue in the next three years, at least for the devices, [will] grow.

“Revenue duplication should be even higher because these devices are carrying more memory content and more SSD storage content. And, typically, the CPU or the NPU or the silicon is a bit more expensive, so we expect [average sale prices] to be 3% to 7% higher going forward,” he added.

What is the pitch around the products?

The elevator pitch often includes words such as “productivity”, “efficiency” and even “cost cutting”, but in many cases the use cases are still emerging.

Speaking with MicroScope earlier this year, Brandon Lieberthal, vice-president of PC systems and print solutions for Europe at TD Synnex, shared his thoughts about pitching the advantages of AI-capable products.

“When we talked about technology changes on personal computers in the past, it was really either around an operating system or about a process of speed, and not to take away. But the fact remains those were typically the two things that were driving the step change,” he said.

Now, it’s going to be looking at it from a slightly different angle. Hardware is going to enable the applications and the use cases. As people can see more of the use case, you will see the ramp up, but...I think we’ll be early adopters, [testing] the ecosystem to see [whether it is] returning the investment.”

The distributor then followed that up this month with a partner survey that put AI, along with security, as one of the top drivers in the market.

Can I lean on AI to make other hardware sales?

It’s not just the PC segment that is seeing an impact from AI, and those pitching refreshes might also find it a good time to talk to customers about printers.

Quocirca recently urged channel print management specialists to take advantage of a clear connection between a PC refresh and more spending on printers, with 73% of users looking to change PC hardware also planning to do the same with their printers.

“The market is having to accelerate hardware refreshes across the board as customers abandon age-related renewal cycles in favour of implementing new hardware performance capabilities,” said Louella Fernandes, CEO of Quocirca.

“This presents an enormous opportunity for MPS [managed print services] providers who can broaden their offering to adjacent IT services and offer customers AI solutions and advanced services to support the hybrid work environment.”

How many AI-capable machines will be sold this year?

The PC market is a difficult beast to predict, but the expectation is that Microsoft’s Windows 10 support switch-off next October will focus more minds around refreshing and upgrading products. At that point, it makes sense to look at what’s available, and AI-capable products are a clear improvement.

AI dominated most of the discussions at the recent Canalys Channel Forum, with the analyst house expecting more sales to filter through from Q4 onwards after a disappointing third quarter.

Not only is the hardware a factor, but the industry has stepped up efforts to increase the software available to support use cases and to help drive demand.

“The wide story for the rest of this year and next year is the roll-out of all these different types of AI PCs and the shipping of different software. We have seen a massive increase through developer programmes to build software features that actually take advantage of [the technology],” said Kieron Jessop, an analyst tracking the PC market at Canalys.

He said the emergence of programmes working with hundreds of ISVs had led to the creation of specific software to help customers and the availability of more productivity tools. “Over the next 12 to 24 months, seven out of 10 PCs in the world transition from Windows 10 to 11,” he added.

When it came to forecasting the percentage of sold units that would be AI PCs, Jessop said that the level would rise over the next couple of years: “By 2025, we are already getting close to 40%. By 2026, [it will be the] 50% mark.”

The other theme that the channel needs to be aware of is the customer expectation that those selling them AI PCs will have embraced them. The channel is increasingly using AI, with cases of firms deploying Copilot internally, but users will expect to see a supplier that has first-hand experience with the technology.

There are signs already that the channel is looking upstream and expecting its vendors to use the technology, and that will only spread to resellers and MSPs.

“According to our research, we found there is an expectation from MSPs for vendors to use AI to make better use of customer data, build lead-generation dashboards, and to help improve customer profiles so they can see the gaps in the tools and services for those customers,” said Nicole Reineke, AI strategist at N-able.

Ultimately, the channel needs to be aware that when it comes to selling AI PCs, it is not just a case of talking up the neural processor and mentioning Copilot. Knowledge of the product is important, but so is an awareness of the software coming out of the ISV community to support wider use cases, and it helps if the partner can talk about their own positive experiences with the technology.

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